Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nafta · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nafta 1-0 Bravo
Original prediction
Nafta
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 39.1% | 38.7% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.2% | 27.8% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.62 | 34.6% | 33.6% | -1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Nafta
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Nafta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NaftaLWWLL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BravoDWWDW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NaftaBravo
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.57xG1.34