Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Naft · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Naft 1-1 Duhok
Original prediction
Naft
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.93 | 30.8% | 36.4% | 5.6 pts |
| Draw | 2.69 | 33.6% | 29.8% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 2.53 | 35.6% | 33.7% | -1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.69 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Naft
Probability
36.4%
Model confidence
36.4%
Naft has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NaftD
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00
BTTS 0/1O2.5 0/1
DuhokDW
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 2.50/1.50
BTTS 1/2O2.5 1/2
NaftDuhok
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24