Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Naft · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Naft 2-0 Diyala
Original prediction
Naft
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 46.0% | 49.5% | 3.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.03 | 29.7% | 27.6% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 3.71 | 24.3% | 22.9% | -1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.96 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Naft
Probability
49.5%
Model confidence
49.5%
Naft has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NaftWWLWD
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
DiyalaDWLLD
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
NaftDiyala
37.5Attack54.2
79.2Defence41.7
62.5Form37.5
60.9Power46.6
1.45xG0.76