Naft Maysanvs
Erbil
COMPLETEDIraq · Iraqi League · 10/8/2026, 3:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Erbil · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Naft Maysan 0-1 Erbil, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Naft Maysan 1-1 Erbil
Original prediction
Erbil
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.90 | 23.1% | 18.5% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 27.9% | 27.7% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 1.84 | 49.0% | 53.8% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.23 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.8 pts
Projected Score
Naft Maysan 0–1 Erbil
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Erbil
Probability
53.8%
Model confidence
53.8%
Erbil has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Naft MaysanLWDLD
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
ErbilWLWDW
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Naft MaysanErbil
25.0Attack50.0
54.2Defence87.5
29.2Form70.8
38.2Power70.2
0.47xG1.34