Naft Masjed Soleymanvs
Fard Alborz
COMPLETEDIran · Azadegan League · 10/4/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Naft Masjed Soleyman 0-0 Fard Alborz, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Naft Masjed Soleyman 1-0 Fard Alborz
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 10:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.00 | 29.7% | 34.6% | 4.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.72 | 32.8% | 32.5% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.38 | 37.5% | 33.0% | -4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.3 pts
Projected Score
Naft Masjed Soleyman 0–0 Fard Alborz
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.5%
Model confidence
34.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Naft Masjed SoleymanLLWWL
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Fard AlborzDWDDL
GF 2 · GA 2 · avg 0.40/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
Naft Masjed SoleymanFard Alborz
55.6Attack22.2
55.6Defence88.9
33.3Form55.6
47.3Power59.1
0.89xG0.77