Naft Gachsaranvs
Fard Alborz
COMPLETEDIran · Azadegan League · 10/19/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Naft Gachsaran 0-0 Fard Alborz, with an exact score probability of 33%.
Prediction record
Final result
Naft Gachsaran 4-2 Fard Alborz
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 19:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.83 | 32.0% | 29.7% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.79 | 32.5% | 35.9% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 2.56 | 35.5% | 34.5% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.3 pts
Projected Score
Naft Gachsaran 0–0 Fard Alborz
Exact score probability: 33%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
35.9%
Model confidence
35.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Naft GachsaranLDDLD
GF 1 · GA 3 · avg 0.20/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
Fard AlborzWLDWD
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Naft GachsaranFard Alborz
6.7Attack33.3
80.0Defence86.7
20.0Form53.3
38.7Power58.6
0.52xG0.62