Naft Gachsaranvs
Ario Eslamshahr
COMPLETEDIran · Azadegan League · 9/22/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Naft Gachsaran 0-0 Ario Eslamshahr, with an exact score probability of 38%.
Prediction record
Final result
Naft Gachsaran 0-1 Ario Eslamshahr
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 10:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 40.2% | 35.9% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.81 | 32.2% | 38.6% | 6.4 pts |
| Away | 3.27 | 27.6% | 25.5% | -2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.4 pts
Projected Score
Naft Gachsaran 0–0 Ario Eslamshahr
Exact score probability: 38%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Naft GachsaranDLDLL
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Ario EslamshahrLDDWL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Naft GachsaranArio Eslamshahr
30.2Attack28.3
72.9Defence71.7
38.5Form45.5
48.5Power50.5
0.56xG0.44