Naestvedvs
Thisted FC
COMPLETEDDenmark · 2. Division · 9/13/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Naestved · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Naestved 3-1 Thisted FC
Original prediction
Naestved
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 59.5% | 60.8% | 1.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.00 | 22.7% | 22.0% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 5.08 | 17.8% | 17.2% | -0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Naestved
Probability
60.8%
Model confidence
60.8%
Naestved has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NaestvedDWLDW
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
Thisted FCLLDLL
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
NaestvedThisted FC
38.9Attack22.2
61.1Defence22.2
50.0Form5.6
53.0Power21.1
2.01xG0.76