Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Naestved · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Naestved 2-1 B 93
Original prediction
Naestved
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 06:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.29 | 39.6% | 35.9% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.3% | 29.2% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.67 | 34.0% | 34.9% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Naestved
Probability
35.9%
Model confidence
35.9%
Naestved has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NaestvedDDDDW
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 2/5
B 93WWWLD
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
NaestvedB 93
45.5Attack57.6
60.6Defence57.6
48.5Form54.5
54.0Power56.7
1.23xG1.26