Nacka Iliriavs
Smedby
COMPLETEDSweden · Division 2 - Södra Svealand · 9/5/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Smedby · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-3 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nacka Iliria 1-1 Smedby
Original prediction
Smedby
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 41.6% | 19.2% | -22.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 25.6% | 17.7% | -7.9 pts |
| Away | 2.76 | 32.8% | 63.1% | 30.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.53 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
30.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–210%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–39%
Predicted outcome
Smedby
Probability
63.1%
Model confidence
63.1%
Smedby has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80