Nacka Iliriavs
Rågsved
COMPLETEDSweden · Division 2 - Södra Svealand · 9/19/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rågsved · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nacka Iliria 1-0 Rågsved
Original prediction
Rågsved
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.48 | 36.7% | 21.6% | -15.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.1% | 19.0% | -5.2 pts |
| Away | 2.33 | 39.2% | 59.4% | 20.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
20.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Rågsved
Probability
59.4%
Model confidence
59.4%
Rågsved has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60