Nacka Iliriavs
Karlslund
COMPLETEDSweden · Division 2 - Södra Svealand · 10/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Karlslund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nacka Iliria 1-4 Karlslund
Original prediction
Karlslund
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 53.6% | 36.9% | -16.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.95 | 23.1% | 26.1% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 3.92 | 23.3% | 37.0% | 13.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.92 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Karlslund
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Karlslund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80