Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nacional · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Nacional are 0W-4D-1L in their last 5 (LDDDD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Maritimo have no completed matches on record, with no goal data yet. Both teams scored in 5 of those 5 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Nacional hold a 3.8-point power-rating edge (67.1 v 63.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.0% in the Segunda Liga, while Nacional holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 36% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Nacional
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Nacional has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00