GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 4/1/2025, 10:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Independiente · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 0-2

Highconfidence

Nacional Potosí are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Independiente are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Independiente hold an 18.0-point power-rating edge (42.5 v 60.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 62.1% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Independiente holds the strongest overall chance at 62% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Independiente

Probability

62.1%

Model confidence

62.1%

Independiente has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Nacional PotosíLWLDW

GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
IndependienteWWDWD

GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Nacional PotosíIndependiente
38.1Attack70.8
38.1Defence66.7
47.6Form54.2
42.5Power60.4
0.87xG2.12
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