GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 5/9/2024, 12:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Fortaleza EC · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 0-2

Highconfidence

Nacional Potosí are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.60 conceded, while Fortaleza EC are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DDDWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Fortaleza EC hold a 31.6-point power-rating edge (42.5 v 74.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 74.2% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Fortaleza EC holds the strongest overall chance at 74% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 42% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Fortaleza EC

Probability

74.2%

Model confidence

74.2%

Fortaleza EC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Nacional PotosíLLLLL

GF 2 · GA 13 · avg 0.40/2.60

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Fortaleza ECDDDWD

GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
Nacional PotosíFortaleza EC
38.1Attack71.8
38.1Defence74.4
47.6Form76.9
42.5Power74.1
0.60xG2.42
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