Nacional Asuncionvs
Sportivo Ameliano
COMPLETEDParaguay · Division Profesional - Clausura · 9/25/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nacional Asuncion · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Nacional Asuncion 1-0 Sportivo Ameliano, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Nacional Asuncion 1-1 Sportivo Ameliano
Original prediction
Nacional Asuncion
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.79 | 51.8% | 57.2% | 5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.7% | 26.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 4.49 | 20.6% | 16.0% | -4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.34 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.4 pts
Projected Score
Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo Ameliano
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Nacional Asuncion
Probability
57.2%
Model confidence
57.2%
Nacional Asuncion has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 1 · avg 2.00/0.20
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20