GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Libertadores · 2/20/2023, 10:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Nacional Asuncion · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Nacional Asuncion are 1W-0D-1L in their last 2 (WL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded, while Sporting Cristal are 3W-1D-0L in their last 4 (WDWW), averaging 1.75 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 6 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Nacional Asuncion hold a 5.9-point power-rating edge (31.3 v 25.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 49.9% in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, while Nacional Asuncion holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Nacional Asuncion

Probability

49.9%

Model confidence

49.9%

Nacional Asuncion has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Nacional AsuncionWL

GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/1.50

BTTS 2/2O2.5 2/2
Sporting CristalWDWW

GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.75/0.50

BTTS 2/4O2.5 2/4
Nacional AsuncionSporting Cristal
33.3Attack33.3
33.3Defence11.1
16.7Form22.2
31.3Power25.4
1.70xG1.01
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