Nacional Asuncionvs
Deportivo Recoleta
COMPLETEDParaguay · Division Profesional - Clausura · 10/12/2026, 10:20:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nacional Asuncion · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Nacional Asuncion 2-0 Deportivo Recoleta, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Nacional Asuncion 1-0 Deportivo Recoleta
Original prediction
Nacional Asuncion
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 13:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.73 | 53.3% | 74.6% | 21.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.7% | 16.5% | -9.2 pts |
| Away | 4.37 | 21.0% | 8.9% | -12.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.73 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
21.3 pts
Projected Score
Nacional Asuncion 2–0 Deportivo Recoleta
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Nacional Asuncion
Probability
74.6%
Model confidence
74.6%
Nacional Asuncion has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40