GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 5/7/2024, 10:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Nacional Asuncion are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Corinthians are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWWLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Corinthians hold an 11.9-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 57.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.0% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 31% BTTS chance and 21% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

43.0%

Model confidence

43.0%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Nacional AsuncionDLLWL

GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
CorinthiansDWWLL

GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60

BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Nacional AsuncionCorinthians
33.3Attack29.2
66.7Defence75.0
33.3Form58.3
45.3Power57.3
0.77xG0.79
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