Nacional AC MGvs
Venda Nova
COMPLETEDBrazil · Mineiro - 3 · 10/17/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nacional AC MG · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nacional AC MG 1-1 Venda Nova
Original prediction
Nacional AC MG
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 October 2026 at 00:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 40.9% | 38.9% | -1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 26.6% | 28.1% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.75 | 32.5% | 33.0% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.36 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Nacional AC MG
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Nacional AC MG has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 3 · GA 0 · avg 3.00/0.00