Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
NAC Breda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 3-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
NAC Breda 1-0 MVV
Original prediction
NAC Breda
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.28 | 72.2% | 59.8% | -12.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.58 | 16.7% | 18.8% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 8.35 | 11.1% | 21.4% | 10.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–17%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.3–27%
Predicted outcome
NAC Breda
Probability
59.8%
Model confidence
59.8%
NAC Breda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NAC BredaDWWLL
GF 12 · GA 12 · avg 2.40/2.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
MVVLWLLD
GF 5 · GA 15 · avg 1.00/3.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NAC BredaMVV
70.4Attack48.1
29.6Defence29.6
51.9Form59.3
53.1Power48.2
3.08xG1.84