NAC Bredavs
Jong Utrecht
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eerste Divisie · 9/11/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
NAC Breda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
NAC Breda 2-3 Jong Utrecht
Original prediction
NAC Breda
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.29 | 71.9% | 63.9% | -8.1 pts |
| Draw | 5.55 | 16.7% | 18.9% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 8.14 | 11.4% | 17.2% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
NAC Breda
Probability
63.9%
Model confidence
63.9%
NAC Breda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60