Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Heracles · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 1-3 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
NAC Breda 1-1 Heracles
Original prediction
Heracles
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.58 | 36.0% | 28.3% | -7.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 25.3% | 23.5% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.39 | 38.8% | 48.1% | 9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.67 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.1–38%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Heracles
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
Heracles has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NAC BredaWWDWW
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
HeraclesWWDWL
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
NAC BredaHeracles
66.7Attack100.0
42.4Defence60.6
60.6Form84.8
58.8Power80.3
1.61xG2.88