Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MVV · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
MVV 1-1 Roda
Original prediction
MVV
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.10 | 29.9% | 44.2% | 14.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.9% | 25.6% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.14 | 43.2% | 30.3% | -13.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.45 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
MVV
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
MVV has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MVVWLWWW
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
RodaDWWLL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MVVRoda
66.7Attack41.7
66.7Defence66.7
100.0Form58.3
83.3Power58.8
1.84xG1.10