Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Heracles · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-3 (9%), 0-3 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
MVV 1-5 Heracles
Original prediction
Heracles
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.12 | 15.1% | 9.8% | -5.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.85 | 19.1% | 13.1% | -6.0 pts |
| Away | 1.41 | 65.7% | 77.0% | 11.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.41 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–39%
- 2.0–39%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Heracles
Probability
77.0%
Model confidence
77.0%
Heracles has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MVVLLWLL
GF 4 · GA 15 · avg 0.80/3.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
HeraclesWDWLW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
MVVHeracles
43.3Attack100.0
33.3Defence60.0
53.3Form83.3
45.8Power79.6
1.03xG3.44