MVVvs
Helmond Sport
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eerste Divisie · 9/26/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Helmond Sport · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
MVV 2-0 Helmond Sport
Original prediction
Helmond Sport
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 43.5% | 36.5% | -7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.4% | 22.8% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 3.08 | 30.0% | 40.6% | 10.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Helmond Sport
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Helmond Sport has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 18 · avg 0.80/3.60
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80