MVVvs
Almere City FC
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eerste Divisie · 9/11/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Almere City FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
MVV 0-4 Almere City FC
Original prediction
Almere City FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.91 | 31.9% | 36.8% | 4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 24.8% | 25.2% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.14 | 43.3% | 38.0% | -5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Almere City FC
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Almere City FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80