Mutondo Starsvs
Red Arrows
COMPLETEDZambia · Super League · 10/4/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Mutondo Stars 0-0 Red Arrows, with an exact score probability of 39%.
Prediction record
Final result
Mutondo Stars 1-3 Red Arrows
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.56 | 25.3% | 23.8% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw | 2.72 | 33.2% | 38.2% | 5.0 pts |
| Away | 2.18 | 41.5% | 38.0% | -3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.0 pts
Projected Score
Mutondo Stars 0–0 Red Arrows
Exact score probability: 39%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Mutondo StarsWDWLL
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Red ArrowsWDWDL
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Mutondo StarsRed Arrows
25.5Attack31.4
66.7Defence76.5
40.2Form54.9
46.7Power56.9
0.38xG0.60