Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Musa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Musa 3-2 NJS
Original prediction
Musa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.28 | 70.4% | 52.9% | -17.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.47 | 16.4% | 21.1% | 4.7 pts |
| Away | 6.81 | 13.2% | 25.9% | 12.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Musa
Probability
52.9%
Model confidence
52.9%
Musa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MusaDDLWL
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NJSLWWLL
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
MusaNJS
33.3Attack25.4
3.2Defence6.3
22.2Form11.1
22.8Power17.7
2.07xG1.54