Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
GrIFK · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Musa 5-2 GrIFK
Original prediction
GrIFK
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 40.9% | 29.8% | -11.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.03 | 22.4% | 24.2% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.47 | 36.7% | 46.1% | 9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
GrIFK
Probability
46.1%
Model confidence
46.1%
GrIFK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MusaWDDLW
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
GrIFKDDLDW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 2/5
MusaGrIFK
36.4Attack40.9
4.5Defence45.5
25.8Form40.9
25.3Power44.7
1.26xG2.23