Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
EBK · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 1-3 (7%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Musa 1-1 EBK
Original prediction
EBK
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.74 | 24.2% | 24.4% | 0.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.23 | 21.3% | 18.3% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 1.66 | 54.5% | 57.3% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.23 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.1–37%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
EBK
Probability
57.3%
Model confidence
57.3%
EBK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MusaLWLLL
GF 3 · GA 18 · avg 0.60/3.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
EBKDLWLL
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MusaEBK
33.3Attack49.1
0.0Defence22.8
21.1Form28.1
21.4Power34.9
1.67xG2.64