Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Veles · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Murom 1-0 Veles
Original prediction
Veles
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.49 | 26.3% | 35.9% | 9.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 27.1% | 27.6% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 1.97 | 46.6% | 36.5% | -10.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Veles
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Veles has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MuromWWLDD
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
VelesDWWWL
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
MuromVeles
50.0Attack100.0
100.0Defence50.0
66.7Form66.7
71.2Power71.2
1.47xG1.25