Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Murom · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Murom 0-0 Tver
Original prediction
Murom
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 57.6% | 66.1% | 8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 24.8% | 20.0% | -4.8 pts |
| Away | 5.17 | 17.6% | 13.9% | -3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.67 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Murom
Probability
66.1%
Model confidence
66.1%
Murom has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MuromDWWWW
GF 13 · GA 1 · avg 2.60/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
TverWWWDW
GF 14 · GA 2 · avg 2.80/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MuromTver
62.5Attack56.4
75.0Defence51.3
73.6Form47.4
69.8Power51.3
2.07xG0.77