Muratavs
San Giovanni
COMPLETEDSan-Marino · Campionato · 9/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Murata · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Murata 0-2 San Giovanni
Original prediction
Murata
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.13 | 21.9% | 40.7% | 18.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.88 | 23.2% | 24.7% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 1.65 | 54.9% | 34.6% | -20.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Murata
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
40.7%
Murata has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MurataLWLLL
GF 7 · GA 18 · avg 1.40/3.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
San GiovanniLLLLL
GF 2 · GA 14 · avg 0.40/2.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
MurataSan Giovanni
66.7Attack33.3
0.0Defence0.0
50.0Form0.0
38.7Power15.3
2.09xG1.31