Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Domagnano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Murata 2-2 Domagnano
Original prediction
Domagnano
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 10.47 | 8.6% | 22.6% | 14.0 pts |
| Draw | 5.21 | 17.3% | 22.6% | 5.3 pts |
| Away | 1.22 | 74.0% | 54.8% | -19.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.21 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Domagnano
Probability
54.8%
Model confidence
54.8%
Domagnano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MurataLLLLW
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
DomagnanoLLLWW
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
MurataDomagnano
26.7Attack46.7
13.3Defence46.7
20.0Form40.0
22.7Power44.4
1.19xG1.83