Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cosmos · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Murata 0-2 Cosmos
Original prediction
Cosmos
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 12.09 | 7.4% | 24.0% | 16.6 pts |
| Draw | 5.36 | 16.7% | 22.8% | 6.1 pts |
| Away | 1.18 | 75.9% | 53.2% | -22.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-22.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Cosmos
Probability
53.2%
Model confidence
53.2%
Cosmos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MurataLLWLL
GF 6 · GA 16 · avg 1.20/3.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
CosmosWWLDD
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
MurataCosmos
44.4Attack77.8
11.1Defence55.6
33.3Form44.4
30.6Power55.2
1.39xG1.99