Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nafta · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%), 1-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mura 0-0 Nafta
Original prediction
Nafta
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.09 | 43.3% | 20.9% | -22.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 26.9% | 18.6% | -8.2 pts |
| Away | 3.04 | 29.8% | 60.5% | 30.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.38 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
30.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.0–29%
- 3.1–38%
Predicted outcome
Nafta
Probability
60.5%
Model confidence
60.5%
Nafta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MuraDDLDL
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
NaftaWLWWL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MuraNafta
36.7Attack60.0
26.7Defence53.3
30.0Form53.3
34.2Power56.1
1.04xG2.57