Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celje · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mura 0-0 Celje
Original prediction
Celje
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.44 | 20.5% | 28.5% | 8.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 25.0% | 27.8% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 1.67 | 54.5% | 43.7% | -10.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.64 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Celje
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Celje has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MuraLDLLW
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CeljeLLLWL
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MuraCelje
0.0Attack50.0
66.7Defence100.0
0.0Form100.0
23.7Power86.5
1.07xG1.39