Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mura · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mura 1-6 Aluminij
Original prediction
Mura
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 44.1% | 41.3% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.7% | 28.2% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.24 | 28.2% | 30.5% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Mura
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
Mura has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MuraDLLWL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
AluminijDLLWW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MuraAluminij
0.0Attack0.0
66.7Defence33.3
0.0Form0.0
23.7Power15.3
1.45xG1.11