Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Municipal · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Municipal are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Xelajú are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and municipal hold a 12.8-point power-rating edge (62.6 v 49.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely result in the Liga Nacional, favouring Municipal with 22.5% confidence, a 25% BTTS chance and 21% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Municipal
Probability
51.6%
Model confidence
22.5%
Municipal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80