Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Municipal · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Municipal 1-0 Marquense, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Municipal 1-1 Marquense
Original prediction
Municipal
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.22 | 74.4% | 61.4% | -13.1 pts |
| Draw | 5.13 | 17.6% | 25.7% | 8.0 pts |
| Away | 11.42 | 7.9% | 13.0% | 5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.13 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.1 pts
Projected Score
Municipal 1–0 Marquense
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Municipal
Probability
61.4%
Model confidence
61.4%
Municipal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MunicipalDWDWD
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MarquenseWWLDW
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
MunicipalMarquense
50.0Attack36.4
80.0Defence63.6
70.0Form57.6
68.2Power54.8
1.21xG0.48