Municipalvs
Malacateco
COMPLETEDGuatemala · Liga Nacional · 9/14/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Municipal · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Municipal 2-2 Malacateco
Original prediction
Municipal
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.27 | 71.6% | 48.0% | -23.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.57 | 19.9% | 27.0% | 7.1 pts |
| Away | 10.68 | 8.5% | 25.0% | 16.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.57 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Municipal
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
Municipal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40