Municipalvs
Guastatoya
COMPLETEDGuatemala · Liga Nacional · 10/19/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Municipal · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Municipal 1-0 Guastatoya, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Municipal 1-1 Guastatoya
Original prediction
Municipal
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.39 | 65.5% | 56.2% | -9.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.05 | 22.4% | 26.0% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 7.53 | 12.1% | 17.8% | 5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.05 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.2 pts
Projected Score
Municipal 1–0 Guastatoya
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Municipal
Probability
56.2%
Model confidence
56.2%
Municipal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MunicipalLDDWD
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
GuastatoyaDLWWW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
MunicipalGuastatoya
47.2Attack48.7
75.0Defence59.0
61.1Form59.0
62.6Power57.3
1.26xG0.66