Mulbarton Wanderersvs
Gloucester City
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gloucester City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mulbarton Wanderers 1-2 Gloucester City
Original prediction
Gloucester City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.05 | 22.4% | 34.1% | 11.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 23.7% | 27.3% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 1.69 | 53.8% | 38.6% | -15.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.69 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Gloucester City
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Gloucester City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40