Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Iğdır FK · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Muğlaspor 0-0 Iğdır FK, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Muğlaspor 2-2 Iğdır FK
Original prediction
Iğdır FK
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.07 | 29.7% | 28.7% | -1.0 pts |
| Draw | 2.98 | 30.6% | 31.9% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.30 | 39.7% | 39.4% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.98 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.3 pts
Projected Score
Muğlaspor 0–0 Iğdır FK
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Iğdır FK
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Iğdır FK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MuğlasporDDWWD
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Iğdır FKWWWWL
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MuğlasporIğdır FK
28.6Attack47.6
76.2Defence76.2
47.6Form71.4
53.0Power67.2
0.68xG0.88