Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bursaspor · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Muğlaspor 0-0 Bursaspor, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Muğlaspor 0-3 Bursaspor
Original prediction
Bursaspor
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 03:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.05 | 18.0% | 26.9% | 8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 24.2% | 29.8% | 5.6 pts |
| Away | 1.57 | 57.8% | 43.3% | -14.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.5 pts
Projected Score
Muğlaspor 0–0 Bursaspor
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Bursaspor
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
Bursaspor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MuğlasporDDDDW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
BursasporLWDWW
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
MuğlasporBursaspor
33.3Attack63.0
70.4Defence66.7
44.4Form70.4
51.7Power67.7
0.73xG1.11