Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Muğlaspor · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Muğlaspor 2-0 Boluspor
Original prediction
Muğlaspor
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 60.0% | 46.8% | -13.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 23.3% | 26.9% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 5.46 | 16.7% | 26.3% | 9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Muğlaspor
Probability
46.8%
Model confidence
46.8%
Muğlaspor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MuğlasporDDLDD
GF 1 · GA 3 · avg 0.20/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
BolusporLLLWL
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
MuğlasporBoluspor
50.0Attack33.3
50.0Defence33.3
50.0Form0.0
50.0Power23.7
1.63xG1.08