Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Muharraq · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Muharraq 3-1 Manama
Original prediction
Muharraq
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.25 | 73.0% | 50.8% | -22.2 pts |
| Draw | 5.27 | 17.2% | 24.9% | 7.6 pts |
| Away | 9.26 | 9.8% | 24.3% | 14.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-22.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Muharraq
Probability
50.8%
Model confidence
50.8%
Muharraq has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MuharraqLDWWW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ManamaLDLWW
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MuharraqManama
16.7Attack33.3
66.7Defence0.0
16.7Form16.7
36.5Power21.0
1.56xG1.07