Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Muharraq · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Muharraq 1-1 Al Ahli
Original prediction
Muharraq
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.40 | 64.7% | 57.5% | -7.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.00 | 22.7% | 21.8% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 7.19 | 12.6% | 20.7% | 8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Muharraq
Probability
57.5%
Model confidence
57.5%
Muharraq has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MuharraqWWWWW
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Al AhliDLWLW
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MuharraqAl Ahli
60.6Attack48.5
57.6Defence54.5
56.1Form50.0
59.7Power52.2
1.81xG1.10