Muangthong Unitedvs
Phrae United
COMPLETEDThailand · Thai League 2 · 10/13/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Muangthong United · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (15%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Muangthong United 0-1 Phrae United
Original prediction
Muangthong United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 56.7% | 40.3% | -16.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.1% | 29.9% | 4.9 pts |
| Away | 4.93 | 18.3% | 29.8% | 11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–115%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Muangthong United
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Muangthong United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20